Key Takeaways
- Over the past decade, CBDCs have moved to the top of many central banks’ strategic agendas, growing from just 3 projects in 2016 to 149 by August 2025. While many initiatives have advanced from research to proof-of-concept (“PoC”) and pilot, there is a clear “difficulty curve”: progress slows sharply beyond the pilot stage. As of the time of writing, only three CBDCs have been fully launched (excluding ZiG, which is a gold-backed digital currency).
- The majority of CBDC explorations (~70%) are focused on retail CBDCs (“rCBDCs”), where several trends raise concerns regarding future adoption:
- Cancellation: Some jurisdictions have abandoned rCBDC projects due to public opposition (e.g., Canada) or limited perceived value (e.g., Denmark, Japan). For many countries, more immediate and tangible value was seen in modernising existing payment systems vs. launching a new digital currency.
- Deferment: Other jurisdictions have paused rCBDC exploration, with Singapore seeing little immediate benefit, the Philippines shifting its focus to wholesale CBDCs (“wCBDCs”), and South Korea redirecting its focus to stablecoins. These trends highlight the fact that strategic alignment with domestic priorities and payment ecosystem maturity is critical before committing to full exploration of rCBDCs.
- Minimal Uptake: Even among the rCBDCs that have launched, adoption remains very low, with the Bahamas’ Sand Dollar, Nigeria’s eNaira, and Jamaica’s JAM-DEX representing less than 1% of currency in circulation. Early pilots in major economies show similar patterns with limited uptake.
- Several factors continue to weigh on rCBDC adoption, including marginal user benefits from rCBDCs in already mature digital payment ecosystems, behavioural inertia as users may need to adjust their entrenched payment habits and venture into uncharted territories, and concerns around privacy and security, among others. In contrast, wCBDCs showcase clearer adoption drivers, including well-defined user propositions, continuity with existing practices, and risk reduction.
The Future Picture
- Lessons from underperforming CBDCs, as well as other successful forms of digital money (e.g., stablecoins and tokenised deposits) can offer valuable insights for the next generation of CBDCs.
- Central banks should look to clearly identify existing pain points, build a robust business case, ensure user-centric CBDC design (spanning legal, regulatory, and technical aspects), and secure stakeholder buy-in pre-launch. This includes setting incentive schemes to drive initial uptake and familiarity (as seen with Ethena’s USDe), developing robust partnerships to expand utility (as seen with Circle’s USDC), and addressing risk concerns through a two-tiered intermediary model leveraging trusted banking partners (as seen with HSBC’s tokenised deposits).
- Ultimately, we believe that the path to more widespread and successful CBDC adoption requires a combination of technical innovation with thoughtful ecosystem design and clear value propositions. By following this roadmap, CBDCs can evolve from experimental projects into effective policy and market instruments, ultimately embedding themselves alongside stablecoins and tokenised deposits as widely adopted instruments with their own clear positioning in the digital economy.
